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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document & Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.