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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."