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Market specialists have expressed considerable doubt regarding optimistic claims that US energy majors will swiftly invest billions of dollars to fix Venezuela's broken oil infrastructure.

Demand for Iron-Clad Assurances

Without an “iron-clad guarantee” of full reimbursement from the Washington, specialists predict multinational oil companies to move with great care.

“It is hasty to comment on any upcoming plans,” a spokesperson said in response.

The ambitious timeframe of under 18 months was publicly proposed. However, realistic assessments indicate a longer timeline.

A Likely Schedule

“It’s probably going to take three years for any significant output increase,” commented one industry expert.

Experts believe operators would likely spend:

• Initial phase: Sorting through new government and security contracts.
• Following phase: Beginning overhaul of facilities.
• Final phase: Reaching a position to significantly ramp up output.

This would lead to an boost of around half a million bpd perhaps by late 2028.

Interest vs. Willingness for Spending

There is a key distinction between companies' curiosity and their willingness to spend heavily.

“I believe their curiosity is an high score, on a scale of ten. I think their readiness is a much lower, because there is significant uncertainty yet.”

Veteran operators in the sector echo this caution. They believe that majors will publicly talk up the opportunity while in practice acting with great care.

The Enormous Price Tag

The required bill would be vast. Independent estimates suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require in excess of $10 billion in funding over several years.

Yet, returning output to previous levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years.

The Unanswered Question of Federal Guarantees

The prospect of energy companies being reimbursed by the government has been often floated. Nevertheless, specific plans on any guarantee have not yet been forthcoming.

The absence of a solid plan is the key factor for the sector's caution. Operators seek guarantees against political risk and the possibility that a different president could cancel any agreement.

“It is essential to be protected from sovereign risk, that we’ve witnessed in Venezuela previously.”

In summary, while political promises runs strong, the practical challenges suggest a path of slow deliberation for potential large-scale financial commitment in the country's energy industry.